A China Meltdown? No.

February 24th, 2016 by Rick Drain

Many of the world’s economies are struggling to continue growth, and some have slipped into recession. In particular, the huge and famously fast-growing Chinese economy looks wobbly, and it has a lot of debt. Could a recession in China cause another debt meltdown like 2008?

 from Bloomberg Businessweekgives us a good analysis:

The World’s Debt Is Alarmingly High. But Is It Contagious?

quote:

“You shouldn’t think, ‘Oh my God, this is all going to collapse and China is going to default on itself,'” says Derek Scissors, a China expert at the American Enterprise Institute. “Instead, you should think, ‘Oh my God, what a colossal waste of money.'”

Click the title link above to read the whole article.


The July 2015 newsletter is ready

August 2nd, 2015 by Rick Drain

Hi,

I just posted and emailed the July 2015 Capital Drain newsletter. If you’re on the direct mailing list for that, you should be receiving it now.

If you’re not yet on the list, but would like to be, send me an email.
If you just want to read the letter, follow this link: July 2015 CapDrain.

I hope you’ll enjoy it. You can sample from the past decade of newsletters on this page.

-R

Longsplice rope

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The June CapDrain newsletter is ready

June 30th, 2015 by Rick Drain

Hi,

I just posted and emailed the June 2015 Capital Drain newsletter. If you’re on the direct mailing list for that, you should be receiving it now.

If you’re not yet on the list, but would like to be, send me an email.
If you just want to read the letter, follow this link: June 2015 CapDrain.

It’s short and sweet. You can skim through it to set your mind at ease for a long weekend celebrating Independence Day.

I hope you’ll enjoy it. You can sample from the past several years of newsletters on this page.

-R


A Quick Summary of the Greek Debt Crisis

June 29th, 2015 by Rick Drain

Seven pages counts as “quick” for a topic as complicated as this. It’s a very readable and good summary, in that it touches on blame for all, not just for one.

  • Yes Greece did borrow too much for too long.
  • The 2010 “rescue” of Greece actually rescued the non-Greek (mostly French and German) banks. Greece remained insolvent and should have defaulted then.
  • Economic concessions Greece made then have made the situation worse, decreasing GDP by 25%
  • Greece really can’t pay the all the debt back on anything like the schedule that the European hardliners are demanding. Really, can’t. Not possible.
  • It’s not clear what’s next.

A Primer on the Greek Crisis: the things you need to know from the start until now

by Anil Kashyap; University of Chicago, Booth School of Business

June 29th, 2015